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TallyBench / Probability Calculator
// PROBABILITY

Two events, six answers.

Enter the probability of each. You get both happening, either happening, exactly one, neither, and P(A given B).

Not A
A and B
A or B (either)
Exactly one
Neither
A given B

The rules

Independence is an assumption, not a default

This calculator treats A and B as independent — one happening tells you nothing about the other. Coin flips and dice rolls qualify. A great many real situations do not.

Rain today and rain tomorrow are not independent. Two loans defaulting in the same recession are not independent. Underestimating exactly this correlation is a large part of what made the 2008 mortgage crisis worse than the models predicted: individually unlikely defaults were treated as unrelated when they shared a common cause.

If your events are dependent, P(A and B) is P(A) × P(B given A), and you need the conditional probability rather than the raw one.

Why "or" needs the subtraction

With P(A) = 0.5 and P(B) = 0.4, adding gives 0.9. But that counts the 0.2 where both occur twice — once inside A, once inside B. Subtracting the overlap gives the correct 0.7.

The trap sharpens with larger probabilities: two events at 0.7 each would sum to 1.4, which is impossible. Any probability above 1 means the overlap was not removed.

What does independent mean here?

That one event happening does not change the odds of the other. Coin flips are independent; weather on consecutive days is not. The formulas here assume independence, and give wrong answers if the events are actually linked.

Why subtract P(A and B) when calculating "A or B"?

Because outcomes where both happen sit inside A and inside B, so adding the two probabilities counts them twice. Subtracting the overlap once corrects it. Without the subtraction you can get a probability above 1, which is impossible.

How do I work out the chance of at least one?

Take 1 minus the probability of none. For two events that is 1 − (1−P(A))(1−P(B)). It is almost always easier than adding up every way at least one could happen, and the advantage grows with more events.

What is conditional probability?

The probability of A given that B has already happened: P(A and B) ÷ P(B). For independent events it simply equals P(A), since B tells you nothing. When it differs from P(A), the events are dependent by definition.

For counting the arrangements behind a probability, use the Permutation and Combination Calculator. Descriptive statistics on a dataset are handled by the Statistics Calculator and Standard Deviation Calculator, and for sampling see the Sample Size Calculator.